Vermont vs Duke Odds, Prediction & Picks

Mar 21, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) talks to the media at a press conference at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Vermont vs Duke prediction for Friday nightThe March Madness odds favor the Blue Devils in New YorkRead below for Duke vs Vermont odds, predictions and picks

The fourth-seeded Duke Blue Devils (24-8) will face off against the No. 13 Vermont Catamounts (28-6) in a highly anticipated South Regional first-round matchup of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The game tips off at 7:10 PM ET on Friday, March 22 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York and will be televised nationally on CBS.

Duke enters as a heavy 12-point favorite with the over/under set at 132.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Blue Devils are 18-11-1 against the spread when they are favored this season.

Let’s break down Vermont vs Duke odds as we provide our prediction for Friday night’s game.

Vermont Catamounts vs Duke Blue Devils Odds

Based on the Friday March Madness odds, the Blue Devils have an 88.9% implied probability to win outright on the moneyline (-750), compared to just a 15.4% chance for the Catamounts as +525 underdogs.

Duke is a popular pick to make the Final Four, sporting +355 odds to make the March Madness semi-finals. Vermont, meanwhile, is a huge longshot in the March Madness Final Four odds.

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Odds as of March 21, 2024, at ESPN Bet North Carolina. NC sports betting has gone live, meaning Durham residents can legally bet on this game at North Carolina sports betting apps. 

Vermont Dominates America East

Vermont put together a dominant campaign, going 28-6 overall and 18-1 in America East action. The Catamounts enter the Big Dance riding a 10-game winning streak after capturing their third straight conference tournament title.

Vermont had to overcome a lot of adversity, rallying from double-digit deficits in five wins and trailing at halftime of the America East championship before pulling out a 66-61 victory over UMass Lowell. The battle-tested Catamounts are making their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance and seeking their first Sweet 16 trip in school history.

For Vermont, it all starts with two-time America East Player of the Year TJ Long. The senior guard leads a balanced attack at 12.2 ppg. Long is an excellent passer and decision-maker who spearheads the Catamounts’ efficient offense.

Vermont hangs its hat on defense, giving up just 63.0 ppg to rank 9th in the country. The Catamounts are extremely disciplined, rarely fouling (14.6 per game, 6th) and forcing a lot of tough shots (40.6% FG defense, 32nd).

Offensively, Vermont is efficient but methodical. The Catamounts average 72.3 ppg (215th) on 45.6% shooting (81st). They like to slow the pace, ranking 350th in tempo per KenPom. In terms of ATS trends, John Becker’s team has only covered in 14 of their 36 games (39%).

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Duke Aiming to End Skid

Duke had an up-and-down season that fell short of their lofty preseason expectations as the #2 ranked team in the country. The young Blue Devils struggled with consistency, especially down the stretch, losing their final two games to rivals North Carolina to end the regular season and NC State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.

Still, Duke’s immense talent was on full display as they went 24-8 overall and 15-6 in ACC play to earn a 4-seed. The Blues Devils are led by ACC Rookie of the Year Kyle Filipowski, who paces the team in both scoring (17.1 ppg) and rebounding (8.1 rpg).

Only 1 freshman/sophomore earned consensus All-America status in 2023-24

👊🇺🇸 @kylefilipowski pic.twitter.com/M4zdGdf1FN

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 20, 2024

The Blue Devils also have a trio of double-digit scorers in Jeremy Roach (14.0 ppg), Jared McCain (13.4 ppg) and Mark Mitchell (12.3 ppg). Roach is the veteran leader at point guard who makes the offense go. The sharp-shooting McCain (43.8% from three) spaces the floor, while the athletic Mitchell is a matchup problem on the wing.

Duke has the edge offensively, ranking 43rd in the nation in scoring at 79.8 ppg. Defensively, Duke is solid if unspectacular, allowing 67.4 ppg (54th). In terms of betting trends, Duke has been a solid bet this season, sporting an 18-13-1 ATS record overall.

Vermont vs Duke Prediction

This is a classic matchup between a high-powered offense and a stingy defense. Duke will look to speed up the tempo and relentlessly attack the rim with its deep stable of athletic playmakers. Vermont will try to ugly it up, force the young Blue Devils into a half-court game, and challenge every shot.

Our prediction is that Duke’s talent advantage should win out. Filipowski will be a tough cover for the undersized Catamounts in the paint. If Roach and the Duke guards take care of the ball and knock down some outside shots, the Blue Devils should gradually pull away.

However, Vermont’s experience and toughness will keep them competitive. The Catamounts rarely beat themselves and have a penchant for hanging around in games. They’ll make Duke work for it on every possession.

The Blue Devils’ two-game losing streak to end the season is a bit concerning, but expect them to refocus now that the bright lights of March Madness are on. Duke has too much firepower and will eventually wear down the gritty Catamounts.

ATS Pick:

Duke -12.5 (-110)

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