Three NFL Week 17 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 17 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 17 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

December 28, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 20: Los Angeles Rams Running Back Cam Akers (23) runs the ball during an NFL game between the New York Jets and the Los Angeles Rams on December 20, 2020, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)

Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 17 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 2-1 for +1.5 units2022 Season: 20-27-1 for +6.9 units

With just six games and two weeks left in the NFL regular season, last week’s two wins clinched a positive return for the season in this column, assuming a 1-unit flat bet made on each upset pick’s moneyline.

Carolina (+125) ran all over Detroit, 37-23.The LA Rams (+120) absolutely embarrassed Denver, 51-14.Chicago (+340) couldn’t slow down the Bills, losing 35-13.

Week 17 NFL Upset Picks

Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Moneyline: +140Point Spread: +3.0

This pick is not currently playable according to our models in terms of moneyline value, but we are making a subjective call to back the Panthers again after hitting on them last week.

After last week’s win over Detroit, the Panthers are now 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS with Steve Wilks as interim coach. That includes a big upset of Tampa Bay back in Week 7, when they held the Bucs to three total points.

Carolina is coming off a game where they rolled up 570 yards against Detroit’s porous defense, and the Panthers’ pass defense has been frustrating teams most of the time that Wilks has been in charge.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have been showing their weakness on offense all year, and would have had any hope of making the playoffs squashed long ago if they didn’t play in the weak NFC South.

They rank 28th in points in points scored, and following a 2-0 start, they are 5-8 SU and an incredible 1-11-1 ATS. The last time the Bucs scored more than 23 points was back in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City; the last time they crossed 400 total yards was in Germany against Seattle in early November.

The only thing the Bucs had been relatively good at was avoiding turnovers, but they’ve now turned it over 11 times in the last four games.

Carolina has the better running game by a mile (Tampa Bay still ranks last in yards and yards per carry), and the pass defenses for both teams are very good, especially down the stretch for Carolina. Meanwhile, Carolina QB Sam Darnold is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt in his four starts, while the Bucs’ Tom Brady is plodding along at 6.2 yards per attempt this year.

Los Angeles Rams (at LA Chargers)

Moneyline: +230Point Spread: +6.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Rams have re-discovered themselves lately, while having to play a different style without stars like QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp

They’ve turned around their running game, as they ranked near the bottom of the NFL at mid-season, but have had over 110 rushing yards in four of the last six games. RB Cam Akers, who struggled early in the year coming back from an Achilles injury and was inactivated for a stretch, has put together the two best games since his injury.

Now Akers gets a Chargers team that struggles to stop the run (5.3 yards per carry allowed). The Chargers also just clinched a wildcard spot, and their opportunity to significantly improve their playoff positioning is not high. So the motivation edge could belong to the team that is rejuvenating what looked like a lost season, and coming off a 51-14 shellacking of Denver.

This is technically a “road” game, but it’s played in the stadium that the Rams call home, and bragging rights are also on the line here for a surging Rams team that is suddenly creating turnovers after ranking near the bottom in that category at midseason.

Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)

Moneyline: +159Point Spread: +3.0

This is currently our top playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Packers have moved back into the playoff race, and this is a massive game for their chances. And despite being 12-3, the Vikings are an underdog here, as they have won 11 of 12 games by a margin of one score.

While the Vikings’ porous pass defense helps explain their underdog status, this game still features the Vikings offense going against a Packers’ defense that has been vulnerable to running teams in recent weeks.

The Packers have also faced a low number of pass attempts this year, which is partially explained by some of the quarterbacks and offenses they have faced. Back in Week 1, Justin Jefferson torched the Packers’ D when the game was still competitive and in doubt, finishing with 184 yards and two touchdowns.

So we’ll grab the points here with Minnesota in a spot where they can put a big dent in their rival’s playoff hopes, and play contrarian against the “obviously Aaron Rodgers is going to rally the Packers to the playoffs” theme.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 31 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 17 picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20
8	NY Giants	Seattle	135	145	No	L, 27-13
8	Arizona	Minnesota	167	170	No	L, 34-26
8	Carolina	Atlanta	182	177	Yes	L, 34-31 (OT)
9	New Orleans	Baltimore	125	112	Yes	L, 27-13
9	Washington	Minnesota	155	145	Yes	L, 20-17
9	Carolina	Cincinnati	275	270	Yes	L, 42-21
10	Arizona	LA Rams	154	163	No	W, 27-17
10	Minnesota	Buffalo	165	215	No	W, 33-30
10	Houston	NY Giants	190	199	No	L, 24-16
11	Chicago	Atlanta	150	125	Yes	L, 27-24
11	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	177	160	Yes	L, 37-30
11	Cleveland	Buffalo	293	300	No	L, 31-23
12	Tennessee	Cincinnati	110	-106	Yes	L, 20-16
12	Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	120	115	Yes	W, 24-17
12	Jacksonville	Baltimore	165	152	Yes	W, 28-27
13	New York Giants	Washington	114	114	No	T, 20-20
13	New York Jets	Minnesota	132	130	Yes	L, 27-22
13	Houston	Cleveland	265	280	No	L, 27-14
14	Baltimore	Pittsburgh	121	110	Yes	W, 16-14
14	LA Chargers	Miami	145	146	No	W, 23-17
14	Carolina	Seattle	178	167	Yes	W, 30-24
15	Tennessee	LA Chargers	138	139	No	L, 17-14
15	Tampa Bay	Cincinnati	168	162	Yes	L, 34-23
15	NY Giants	Washington	184	180	Yes	W, 20-12
16	LA Rams	Denver	120	156	No	W, 51-14
16	Carolina	Detroit	125	115	Yes	W, 37-23
16	Chicago	Buffalo	340	300	Yes	L, 35-13

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 17 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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