Texas vs Washington Prediction, Odds & Picks – CFP Semifinal Sugar Bowl

Dec 2, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) drops back to pass against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY SportsNo. 3 Texas clashes with No. 2 Washington in the CFP Semifinal at the Sugar BowlUpdated Texas vs Washington odds list the Longhorns as 3.5-point favoritesExplore our Texas vs Washington prediction, odds, and picks for the Sugar Bowl

The #3 Texas Longhorns (12-1) are set to face off against the #2 Washington Huskies (13-0) in the Sugar Bowl on January 1st, 2023, at 8:45 PM ET on ESPN. This pivotal College Football Playoff semifinal will unfold at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

The latest betting odds favor Washington by 3.5 points, with the over/under set at 62 points. This game marks a rematch of the previous season’s Alamo Bowl, where Washington triumphed over Texas 27-20.

Join us as we dive into our Texas vs Washington prediction, examining the odds and projecting the outcome of the game.

Texas vs Washington Odds – CFP Semifinal Sugar Bowl

In the latest Texas vs Washington odds, the Longhorns are 3.5-point favorites against the spread and -175 on the moneyline. The implied win probability for UT stands at 63%. The over/under is set at 62 points.

Despite the Huskies holding a higher seed in the CFP Bracket, it’s Texas that boasts stronger national championship odds. The Longhorns are at +260, compared to the Huskies at +750.

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Texas vs Washington History

The Sugar Bowl will provide a rematch of last year’s Alamo Bowl in which the Huskies defeated the Longhorns by a 27-20 margin. Interestingly enough given all the opt outs in today’s CFB landscape, both UW’s Michael Penix Jr. and Quinn Ewers suited up in the game.

Ewers had a great showing against the Huskies, throwing for 369 yards and a TD. Xavier Worthy had two key dropped passes he’s looking to make good on Monday. Penix threw for 287 yards and one TD with one pick in the game. It was running back Wayne Taulapapa (1-8 yds) who ultimately stole the show.

UW’s win over Texas last season brought the all-time series to 3-2 in favor of Texas. Before the Alamo Bowl, these two programs hadn’t squared off since 2001, so we wouldn’t reach much into the other prior matchups when making your Sugar Bowl prediction.

Texas Betting Analysis

The Longhorns, with their impressive 12-1 record, enter this game following a dominant 49-21 victory over #4 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game. Spearheaded by sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has amassed 3,161 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season, Texas showcases a balanced offensive attack.

Key contributors include wide receivers Xavier Worthy (969 receiving yards, 9 TDs) and Adonai Mitchell (1,580 yds, 10 TDs), alongside tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (607 yds, 2 TDs). RB CJ Baxter (595 yds) has risen to the occasion in the running game following Jonathan Brooks’ season-ending injury.

XAVIER WORTHY💨🔥

pic.twitter.com/z8NE4eckE4

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 2, 2023

Defensively, Texas has maintained a stronghold, allowing only 17.5 points per game to their opponents. They have been exceptionally resilient against the run, conceding a mere 80.8 rushing yards per game. Linebacker Jaylan Ford, with a team-leading 91 tackles, and safety Jerrin Thompson, with three interceptions, anchor the defense.

In terms of betting trends, Texas has a 7-5-1 record against the spread this year. Interestingly, the “under” has cashed in eight of their 13 games. In the previous year’s Alamo Bowl, they fell short of covering the spread as three-point favorites against Washington.

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Washington Betting Analysis

The undefeated Washington Huskies (13-0) enter after a nail-biting 34-31 win over #10 Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation with 4,218 passing yards and boasts a tally of 33 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

Wide receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan have each surpassed 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Dillon Johnson has emerged as a lethal rushing threat with 1,113 yards and 14 TDs. The team felt the loss of their top rusher, Cam Davis, due to injury earlier in the season.

Rome Odunze broke a rib and punctured a lung vs Arizona

Two weeks later he went off for 128 yards and 2 TD vs Oregon. Including the game winner.

DOG🐶

( per @Softykjr ) pic.twitter.com/UMcXlcR8NM

— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) December 5, 2023

While the Huskies’ defense allows an average of 23.6 points per game, linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio stands out with 83 tackles and four sacks. However, the team’s pass rush, averaging only 1.46 sacks per game, may face challenges against a skilled quarterback like Ewers.

Washington’s betting record shows an 8-5 mark against the spread. Similar to Texas, the under has been a frequent outcome in their games, occurring eight times. The Huskies were considered 9.5-point underdogs against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, a surprise to many given their prior regular-season victory over the Ducks.

Texas vs Washington Prediction

This should be an exciting offensive shootout between two talented quarterbacks. Washington likely has an edge with Michael Penix Jr.’s elite passing ability to threaten Texas downfield. However, the Longhorns will keep it close with Quinn Ewers distributing the ball to talented playmakers like Xavier Worthy.

Who ya got? 🍿 #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/fTBC0UJEaN

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) December 3, 2023

For our Texas vs Washington prediction, we lean towards the Longhorns to triumph and cover the spread. Texas is poised to control the game with their robust running game, and their potent pass rush (32 sacks) should help mitigate the pressure on their secondary.

The Huskies’ eight narrow victories this season suggest a looming challenge. We predict that Texas will execute a few crucial plays more effectively, avenging last season’s loss and advancing to the national championship.

Texas vs Washington Pick: Texas -3.5 (-115)

 

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