Duke vs Miami Predictions, Player Props, and Odds Plus the Best Sign-Up Promos

Mar 10, 2023; Greensboro, NC, USA; Miami (Fl) Hurricanes guard Bensley Joseph (4) drives to the basket against Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) during the first half of the semifinals of the ACC tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY SportsThe reeling Miami Hurricanes host the #8 Duke Blue Devils on Wednesday nightDuke can move into a tie with North Carolina at the top of the ACC standings with a winSee the Duke vs Miami odds, player props, and predictions on Feb. 21

A once-promising season for Jim Larranaga’s Miami Hurricanes (15-11, 6-9 ACC, 11-3 home, 12-14 ATS), who started the year 11-2, is becoming an unmitigated disaster during conference play. The Canes have dropped four straight games to fall to 6-9 in the ACC.

On Wednesday night, Miami has to face the #8 Duke Blue Devils (20-5, 11-3 ACC, 5-3 away, 11-14 ATS) at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, FL (7:00 pm ET). Winners of four straight, Duke is a 6.5-point road favorite over Miami.

Duke vs Miami Odds

The moneyline odds favor Duke at -298 with Miami a +240 longshot to win straight-up. The over/under is sitting at 149.5 in Wednesday’s college basketball odds.

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Duke remains one of the top-ten favorites in the March Madness odds, currently a +2500 bet to win its sixth national championship.

Miami Stuck in a Rut

Returning several contributors from last year’s Final Four team, expectations were fairly high for the Canes entering the season, and their 11-2 start – which included wins over Clemson and Kansas State, portended another strong season.

But since that 95-82 over Clemson on Jan. 3rd, Miami has lost nine of 13 games, falling to 15-11 overall and just 6-9 in ACC play. That includes a four-game losing streak, most recently falling 85-77 at Boston College on Saturday.

With four players averaging over 13 PPG, Miami’s offense hasn’t generally been the problem this year (outside of an ugly 60-38 loss at Virginia). But the Canes’ defense has been abysmal. They sit just 111th in the nation in defensive efficiency and are surrendering 72.5 points against per game.

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Duke Needs a Win to Keep Pace with UNC

After a difficult 5-3 stretch to start the season, which included losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech (both outside of KenPom’s top 100), the Blue Devils found their stride. They have won 15 of their last 17 games and are just half a game behind UNC for the ACC lead.

They dropped the first of two matchups with the Tar Heels on Feb. 3 (93-84 in Chapel Hill) but have reeled off four straight wins thereafter. Last time out, Duke easily handled Florida State (76-67 away), using an early 14-2 run to build a lead that wasn’t seriously threatened.

Kyle Filipowski (17.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) has been about as good as expected as a sophomore. While he’s not seriously challenging Zach Edey in the Wooden Award odds, he’s been among the top-five national player of the year favorites all season.

Senior guard Jeremy Roach (14.0 PPG) and freshman Jared McCain (13.8 PPG) are both having excellent offensive seasons while connecting a impressive clips from beyond the arc (44.8 and 41.1%, respectively).

Duke’s defense has taken a step back compared to last year (dropping from 16th in defensive efficiency to 25th) but still rates significantly better than Miami’s.

DUKE vs MIA Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings Sportsbook app. NC residents can see how to claim the DraftKings North Carolina promo ahead of launch in March. 

Miami’s leading scorer, Norchad Omier, is listed with a game-high point total of 19.5, nearly two points higher than his season average (17.8 PPG).  Filipowski and McCain both have an over/under of 15.5, despite Filipowski averaging over three points more than the freshman this year.

Duke vs Miami Prediction

Miami is not as bad as their current losing streak suggests. This is a talented roster that’s put in some truly dismal performances (see an 80-71 home loss to Louisville on Jan. 10) alongside some impressive wins: 95-82 vs Clemson, 72-68 vs Pitt, and a pair of wins over Virginia Tech (75-71 away, 82-74 home).

At the moment, Miami isn’t even on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament at-large conversation. But they have five games to change the narrative, and I expect a do-or-die performance from the veteran-laden Miami team tonight.

Duke vs Miami pick: Miami moneyline (+240) 

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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

ATS: 16-13 (+1.52 units)Moneyline: 2-5 (-3.48 units)Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.