Updated Conn Smythe Odds: Connor McDavid Now Heavy Favorite

Jun 8, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) plays the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period in game one of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY SportsConnor McDavid is now heavily favored to win the Conn Smythe TrophyWill McDavid win the Conn Smythe if the Oilers lose the series?Read below for updated Conn Smythe odds, plus our predictions and picks

The Edmonton Oilers are trailing the Florida Panthers 3-2 in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, but Edmonton captain Connor McDavid is the heavy betting favorite in the Conn Smythe odds. The phenom is priced at -200 to win the NHL Playoff MVP trophy after recording consecutive four-point games.

Will Connor McDavid win the Conn Smythe no matter the outcome of the series? Are there any longshots worth betting on right now?

Let’s analyze the updated Conn Smythe odds and provide our updated predictions.

Updated Conn Smythe Odds 2024

Connor McDavid is the -200 betting favorite to win the Conn Smythe after Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final. McDavid’s updated MVP price gives him an implied win probability of 63.6% at DraftKings.

McDavid was only +700 to win the trophy after Game 4 but a second consecutive 4-point game clearly won over the oddsmakers in Vegas. However, Florida is still the -330 favorite in the Stanley Cup odds.

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Odds as of June 19, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best NHL betting apps for Conn Smythe wagering. 

Connor McDavid Heavy Favorite to Win Conn Smythe

Connor McDavid entered the Stanley Cup Final with +200 odds (33% implied chance) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. After five games in the series, McDavid is now priced at -200 (63.6%) to be named the playoff MVP.

McDavid has put the team on his back, becoming the first player in NHL history to record back-to-back four-point games in the Final. Through 23 playoff games, McDavid has racked up a staggering 42 points (8 goals, 34 assists), putting him just five points shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record of 47 points in a single postseason.

Connor McDavid just became the third player in NHL history to score 40+ points in a postseason 🔥

Gretzky, Lemieux, MCDAVID… GOAT things 🐐 pic.twitter.com/IhpgEN3MgG

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) June 19, 2024

McDavid has already set the record for most assists in a single postseason, and his record-setting production may be enough for him to win the MVP no matter the outcome of the series. There have been five Conn Smythe winners on losing teams, including Anaheim’s Jean-Sébastien Giguère in 2003.

Is there value on McDavid at -200 (bet $200 to win $100)? We are actually somewhat surprised McDavid isn’t closer to the -300 range, with many media members firmly stating McDavid has earned the Conn Smythe win or lose.

However, the Conn Smythe Trophy is for the entire postseason, and McDavid had some quiet games against Vancouver, plus was held pointless in the Cup Final opener. Still, he’s delivered when it mattered most and is singlehandedly giving his team a fighting chance.

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Longshots Who Could Dethrone McDavid

Is there any player capable of challenging Connor McDavid in the Conn Smythe odds? Firstly, we have to rule out any of his teammates. McDavid has a 10-point lead in NHL Playoff scoring, and it’s nearly impossible to envision any non-Oiler besides McDavid taking home the hardware.

Where this gets tricky is if the Panthers win Game 6 somewhat convincingly and one of their top players has a strong performance. Aleksander Barkov is the second betting choice at +300, but he’s been held pointless in three of the five Cup Final games and has struggled to contain McDavid.

How can you not give the Conn Smythe to Connor McDavid now, regardless of what happens the rest of the way? As great as Aleksander Barkov has been, McDavid has twice as many points as Barkov. Twice. As. Many. It's mind-boggling.

— Ken Campbell (@Ken_Campbell27) June 19, 2024

Sergei Bobrovsky was a heavy favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy after the first two Final games, but his odds have now plummeted to +750 after a second straight loss. We don’t envision Bob taking home the hardware with 12 goals allowed in the past three games and a .906 postseason save percentage on the whole.

We gave out Matthew Tkachuk as our pick in the opening Conn Smythe odds and predictions, and he appears to be the only viable candidate left from a betting perspective. He’s a point-per-game player in the postseason and turned in his best performance of the Final in Game 5 with a goal and an assist.

One or two more epic performances could put Tkachuk into the conversation with McDavid. We think this is Connor’s to lose, but +3000 is somehwhat intriguing for a player capable of putting his team on his back similar to what McDavid is currently doing for Edmonton.

 

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