Three NFL Week 7 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 7 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 7 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

October 19, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

Will the Colts have the motivational edge in the rematch with the Titans? (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when it turns into a winning bet.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 7 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2022 Season: 10-8 for +11.1 units

It took a while this season, but we finally had an 0-fer. We’ve had several close calls go our way so far in 2022, but regression reared its head last week:

Carolina, our long-shot pick, led 10-7 at halftime against the Rams, but did nothing on offense and lost 24-10.New Orleans led most of the game, but gave up a 60-yard TD pass with under two minutes left to lose 30-26.Denver went to overtime for the second prime-time game in a row, but it could not get it done against the Chargers, losing 19-16.

A couple tough breaks there, and we had closing-line value on two of the three games, but we can’t complain. It’s going to happen.

A full history of upset picks we’ve made so far in 2022 appears at the end of this article.

Week 7 NFL Upset Picks

Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans)

Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models for Week 7.

A few years ago, we wrote an  article about home teams (like Tennessee here) going for a sweep in a division series. We looked at all division rematches since 2008 where:

The home team in the first game was favored by four or fewer points and lost.The home team in the second game (which won the first game on the road) was also favored by four or fewer points.

In these games, the home team in the rematch, looking for the sweep, went just 16-21 straight up (even though they were the favorite) and 14-23 against the spread.

Basically, these division rematches where the teams are close, and one team won on the road in a slight upset, appear to show some value taking the team trying to avoid the sweep.

In addition, the Colts offense is getting healthier and will likely have RB Jonathan Taylor back, a week after they scored 34 points and made 29 first downs against the Jaguars. The Titans are coming off their bye, but they have been outgained in every single game so far this year despite their 3-2 record.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Moneyline: +131Point Spread: +3.0

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models, as well as a playable spread pick.

Kansas City is the most popular spread pick so far this week in NFL pick’em pools, with 78% of the public picking the Chiefs at -3 and 87% of the public picking Kansas City to win outright. However, San Francisco has played to its competition level recently.

Since the start of the 2020 season, the 49ers actually have a better win/loss record as an underdog in the betting market (8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS) than as a favorite (13-15 SU, 12-16 ATS). In addition, the 49ers rank in the NFL’s top five in both offensive and defense passing efficiency (by net yards per pass attempts), so they may present a challenge to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

San Francisco also ranks first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.3) and in total yards allowed (255.8 per game). Getting this caliber of defense in a home underdog situation is yet another reason to fade the public.

Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens)

Moneyline: +230Point Spread: +6.5

This is the top playable moneyline pick for Week 7, according to our models. So far this year, moneyline picks with similar projected value have gone 8-1 straight up to start the season.

AFC North games played outdoors and by teams within close geographic proximity have tended to show low home-field advantage. Since 2002, when the division was formed, AFC North home teams have only covered the spread 46.2% of the time in division games.

Home division favorites of five points or more have only covered 40% of the time (35-53-2), with Baltimore specifically going only 8-18-1 ATS in division home games when favored by five or more points in that time span.

Some of the other value factors our model is picking up here include Cleveland’s poor turnover margin and low turnover forced rate so far, Baltimore’s low penalty rate, and Baltimore’s high rate of offensive touchdowns coming through the air (13 passing to only four rushing touchdowns to date). Some regression in those factors could benefit Cleveland.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 13 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, five picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 7 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 7 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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