Three NFL Week 18 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 18 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 18 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

January 4, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

The Browns are going to be really popular in Circa (Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire)

Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 18 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2022 Season: 20-30-1 for +3.9 units

In a week where the only big upset was the Eagles losing, we didn’t hit any of our picks.

Carolina (+140) blew a fourth quarter lead to Tampa Bay, losing 30-24.The LA Rams (+230) never got going against the Chargers in a 31-10 defeat.Minnesota (+159) turned in a horrible performance at Green Bay, losing 41-17.

While we have clinched a positive return season heading into this week, we’d still like to close strong in Week 18.

Week 18 NFL Upset Picks

Cleveland Browns (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +124Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Steelers are playing for a wild card spot, though they still need help. The Browns, meanwhile, get to try to spoil their rival’s chances and end Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing season.

Browns QB Deshaun Watson has struggled in his return to the NFL, playing noticeably worse than prior QB Jacoby Brissett, but Watson did finally have a good half in a win against Washington last week, throwing three touchdown passes in the second half.

Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games, but they have all been tight games that came down to the wire. We’ll play on some of the pressure and other game results having an impact here, as well as a Browns’ team that has underperformed but still may be motivated to ruin Pittsburgh’s season.

Houston Texans (at Indianapolis Colts)

Moneyline: +135Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Both of these teams have been bad, but the Colts have been a wreck lately. Since a surprising win in Jeff Saturday’s debut as interim coach over Las Vegas, the Colts are 0-6 against the spread.

In fact, only recent game in which Indianapolis managed to stay within two touchdowns of the spread was the “biggest comeback of all-time” loss to Minnesota. (Not exactly a great silver lining there.)

Houston at least seems to be trying down the stretch, while the Colts seem ready to move on to the offseason (as of a few weeks ago).

Detroit Lions (at Green Bay Packers)

Moneyline: +186Point Spread: +4.5

This pick is not playable according to our Ensemble Forecast model, but does show value according to our Decision Tree model, which tends to be our most highly weighted.

Green Bay has won four in a row to get into the driver’s seat for the final wild card spot. Detroit, meanwhile, needs a Seattle loss or tie earlier in the day to have a chance to beat Green Bay head-to-head and make the postseason. Either way, we expect Detroit to be fired up to play Green Bay in this game.

Green Bay’s win streak has been aided by a +9 turnover margin in the last four games, including eight turnovers combined by opponents in the last two games. As a result, the Packers have scored 67 points on only 616 total yards in the last two games.

With the exception of a loss at Carolina, Detroit has been playing well down the stretch, averaging 299 passing yards a game over the last five contests and 31.6 points per game. They have the offense to hang around, and if turnover luck stops going Green Bay’s way, there could be value here for a final game surprise.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 32 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 19 picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20
8	NY Giants	Seattle	135	145	No	L, 27-13
8	Arizona	Minnesota	167	170	No	L, 34-26
8	Carolina	Atlanta	182	177	Yes	L, 34-31 (OT)
9	New Orleans	Baltimore	125	112	Yes	L, 27-13
9	Washington	Minnesota	155	145	Yes	L, 20-17
9	Carolina	Cincinnati	275	270	Yes	L, 42-21
10	Arizona	LA Rams	154	163	No	W, 27-17
10	Minnesota	Buffalo	165	215	No	W, 33-30
10	Houston	NY Giants	190	199	No	L, 24-16
11	Chicago	Atlanta	150	125	Yes	L, 27-24
11	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	177	160	Yes	L, 37-30
11	Cleveland	Buffalo	293	300	No	L, 31-23
12	Tennessee	Cincinnati	110	-106	Yes	L, 20-16
12	Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	120	115	Yes	W, 24-17
12	Jacksonville	Baltimore	165	152	Yes	W, 28-27
13	New York Giants	Washington	114	114	No	T, 20-20
13	New York Jets	Minnesota	132	130	Yes	L, 27-22
13	Houston	Cleveland	265	280	No	L, 27-14
14	Baltimore	Pittsburgh	121	110	Yes	W, 16-14
14	LA Chargers	Miami	145	146	No	W, 23-17
14	Carolina	Seattle	178	167	Yes	W, 30-24
15	Tennessee	LA Chargers	138	139	No	L, 17-14
15	Tampa Bay	Cincinnati	168	162	Yes	L, 34-23
15	NY Giants	Washington	184	180	Yes	W, 20-12
16	LA Rams	Denver	120	156	No	W, 51-14
16	Carolina	Detroit	125	115	Yes	W, 37-23
16	Chicago	Buffalo	340	300	Yes	L, 35-13
17	Carolina	Tampa Bay	140	165	No	L, 34-20
18	Minnesota	Green Bay	159	155	Yes	L, 41-17
19	LA Rams	LA Chargers	230	235	No	L, 31-10

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 18 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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